All the newest data, from anchoring statistics to forward arrivals, ocean bookings, and inventory-to-sales ratios, depicts the same picture: Congestion in the United States has never been worse – and it’s only getting worse.
This year’s hope for relief has evaporated. CMA CGM, a French airline, is the latest in a long line of market participants to delay normalisation. CMA CGM warned on Friday that capacity restrictions are projected to last until the first half of 2022.
Alarmingly, America’s already overburdened import system looks like it will be forced to handle even higher numbers next month. As terminal berths fill up and ships become trapped at anchor, carriers will be forced to postpone more sailings, cargo will be “rolled” (pushed to a later sailing), and importers will suffer even longer delays and fewer slot availability as they hurry to build inventories for holiday sales.
There are more ships anchored than ever before.
On Sunday, the Marine Exchange of Southern California reported a new all-time high of 47 container ships anchored or drifting outside the Angeles and Long Beach ports. The previous high of 40 was established on February 1 and was matched numerous times last week. On Friday, the total reached 44, and on Monday, it was 46.
On any given day before COVID, an average of 16 container ships were berthed or at anchor (with many boats at anchor being a rare occurrence). There were 76 box ships at berths, anchors, or drifting on Sunday, which was 4.8 times the pre-COVID norm.
(Chart data: American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California. Data bi-monthly Jan 2019-Nov 2020; daily Dec 2020-present)
There are now nearly 60% more container ships anchored than berthed. According to the Marine Exchange, the Los Angeles/Long Beach terminals handled an average of 28 boats per day this month. The remainder is overflow, directed to the so-called “parking lot” at San Pedro Bay.
On Monday, MarineTraffic’s automatic identification system (AIS) ship-positioning data revealed considerable congestion in Southern California, with more than a half-dozen ships forced to drift due to a lack of mooring spaces.
Container-ship positions as of Monday afternoon (Map: MarineTraffic)
There will be even more volume on the way.
“The predicted rise in imports caused by peak season and pre-shipped cargo has already arrived, complicating the operation,” Hapag-Lloyd stated on Friday, alluding to traffic congestion in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Hapag-Lloyd has said that anchorages in California will not be available in 2021.
The WAVE report from the Port of Los Angeles, which forecasts future arrivals, anticipates that volumes will increase in the coming weeks. It predicted loaded import volumes of 120,928 twenty-foot equivalent units for the last week of September, up 34% from the 89,980 TEUs expected to arrive the following week.
Signal, the planning tool for the Port of Los Angeles, indicates a more dramatic increasing tendency. It forecasts 190,937 TEUs of imports for the week of September 12-18, about double the current week’s forecast.
A customized index of shippers’ bookings on FreightWaves’ SONAR platform is another forward indicator. The index has risen considerably in recent weeks, indicating that more significant amounts will arrive at US ports in late September and early October.
