In November, Class 8 truck orders totaled 33,000 units. However, they fell for the second month in a row following record bookings in September. Supply chain issues, growing backlogs, and a slowing economy are all likely to prevent large monthly orders from being placed in the near future.
Orderbooks are completely open. The demand for new equipment is still high. According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, carrier profitability creates a willingness to spend on equipment.
“We continue to anticipate a freight recession and a [mild to medium] economic recession.” However, OEMs have a clear view of a strong [first half of 2023] barring any unforeseen cataclysmic events.”
This hedging allows for another month like September, when orders reached an ACT-reported 53,700 after months of running at half that pace. However, with unbuilt vehicle backlogs increasing, a repeat is unlikely.
FTR Transportation Intelligence, an ACT competitor, reported preliminary North American Class 8 net orders of 34,300 in November, down from 56,000 in September. Despite the lower intake, November orders increased 254% year over year compared to a period when OEMs were canceling orders because they received more than they could build.
On a rolling 12-month basis, Class 8 orders now total 295,000.
“A significant portion of the year appears to have been scheduled for production in 2023,” said Jonathan Starks, FTR’s chief executive officer and chief intelligence officer. “This means further level moderation as we enter the new year.”
“Despite economic uncertainty, the market remains strong, and production will continue to be limited to some extent by supply chains and labor.”
